The Behavioural Economics of Melbourne Cup Day

You have spent hours hunting for the right frock, shoes, bag and hat. You've been primped, plucked and spray tanned, waxed and blow dried.  You have dieted, exercised and cleansed. You've been up since the early hours, battled traffic snarls and endless queues. And now here you are.  Standing in the car park which has been claimed by heels rather than wheels, crammed in amongst sweaty strangers, sipping sour bubbles and nibbling soggy sandwiches. Ahhh, Melbourne Cup Day...proof irrefutable that we are not entirely rational beings.

In celebration of the famous Melbourne Cup, let's take a sneaky peek at the behavioural economics at play.

Overconfidence bias: 
We can be too confident in our abilities which leads to risk taking.
"I've studied the form and of course I know more than the Bookies."  

Illusion of control: We think we can control events that we can't.
"My horse always/never wins."

Actor-observer bias: 
We attribute our own positive behaviour to our character, and the behaviour of others to the situation.
"When I get drunk it's the mix of wine and bubbles that did it; when you get drunk it's because you drank too much!" or "When I win it's because I am super talented in selecting winners; when you win it's luck."

Endowment effect: 
Don't get too excited guys, endowment is about us overvaluing what we own.
"Sure I randomly drew that horse out of the hat, but it's mine and you can't have it."

Restraint bias: 
We underestimate our ability to avoid temptation.
"It's ok, I'll only have a couple of drinks."  

Remembering self: 
Our memories of an experience rather than the experience itself is what persuades us.
I remember the fun of previous Cup days rather than the reality of sore feet, sun burn and expense.

Mental accounting: 
Money is allocated to different 'mental' bank accounts.
I paid for my outfit out of a different 'mental account' than my power bill. Any money I win will be 'free' money to be used on fun stuff.

Focusing illusion:
Whatever we focus on has more importance at that moment than any other time.
"What, there's a race after the Cup??"

Clustering illusion:
We see patterns where none exist.
"The jockey is wearing my lucky colours."

Hindsight bias:
We knew it all along.
"I knew it was going to win!  I just didn't get around to placing a bet."

Sunk cost fallacy:
Once resources have been invested, we find it hard to walk away.
"I better just finish this last drink. Can't let it go to waste" or "Of course I'll wear that fascinator again!"

Sounds like fun doesn't it?  And one for the road, 

Hedonic framing:
Separate, smaller gains over a stretch of time are more pleasurable than one large win of equal value, but smaller separate losses hurt more than a once off.  In other words, the more times we are interrupted by good or bad news, the better/worse it is.
"This is the best day of my life!" or...

No. Don't worry. Your horse always wins.  Have a good one.

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Image from http://www.rgbstock.com/images/horses/2

Money jars of the mind

Does the money you put aside for bills have the same value as money you spend on fun and entertainment?  Behavioural Economics would say no because we tend to think differently about money depending on its context.  It's called "mental accounting", and whilst it has nothing to do with the mental health of your CPA it is very important to know about if you are running a business.


How ING Direct are using mental accounting
ING Direct in the US have cleverly designed savings accounts that can be split out into mental bank accounts.  ING customers can create as many sub-account buckets as they want and call them by a nickname (for example 'Trip to Australia', 'New car', 'Rainy Day' and so on).  According to the article in The New York Times, ING have introduced the tool to help people reach their savings goals but this is really about good business because in order to acquire funds through personal savings accounts ING (and all banks) have to overcome some behavioural blockers.

ING Direct My Savings Goal

Behavioural blockers
To get us to save more, banks have to overcome our

1. tendency to think short-term (ie I'll buy smaller items now rather than save towards a bigger goal) 
2. laziness (ie it's too hard to save so I won't bother) and
3. 'bunny in the headlights' inertia when overwhelmed by choice (ie I get confused by which bank and which accounts I should have so I'll just stick to what I have)

Behavioural enablers

ING's new savings site overcomes the behavioural blockers by using the following techniques;

• Vividness - we are more likely to act if we can readily comprehend the outcome.  By graphically representing the savings goal and allowing the customer to use personal and meaningful descriptors for the sub-accounts, ING are helping make the savings goals come alive.  Just think how much more likely you are to save towards "ski trip $2000", "emergency fund $500" and "new car $25,000" than leaving it all lumped into a generic account.
• Hedonic framing - we get a bigger buzz out of separate gains than a single one of equal value.  By splitting the accounts into specific goals, ING is improving the customer's willingness to save because there is simply more opportunity to attain success.
• Hyperbolic discounting - our impatience means we tend to like gains that we get now more than waiting for larger gains later.  This means we risk whittling away at smaller balances rather than building towards the larger target that might feel too far away. By breaking the goals into specific accounts, we can concentrate on a mix of shorter and longer term objectives and control our impatience without jeopardising the collective savings target. 

Business applications of mental accounting

There is an opportunity for every business to map out the 'mental accounting' that applies to their industry in order to look for behavioural blockers and enablers.  In short, it's about making the purchase decision easy for your customer.  Your customer will more readily spend money with you if they feel comfortable about justifying it to the bank manager in their head, so using the same principles that ING are using to motivate spending rather than saving, consider making the benefits of purchase to the customer vivid, encourage payment by credit rather than cash because it separates the pain of cost from the joy of purchase and if your product or service delivers a longer term payoff, bring some of the benefits forward to ensure the customer gets gains in the shorter term.

Images
ING from http://www.mybanktracker.com/bank-news/2012/05/17/ing-direct-tool-helps-set-savings-goals/
Money jar from http://totalwealthcoaching.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/moneyjars1.jpg